Architects
(Industrial Report) - UK
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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In 2008, the value of architects’ fees in the
UK is believed to have declined by 5% to £4394.9 million. The decline largely
reflects the worsening economic conditions, which started to significantly
affect a number of construction sectors during the year, most notably private
housebuilding activity. Prior to that, the value of fees increased in each
year between 2004 and 2007, with annual growth levels fluctuating between a
nominal 6% and a strong 18%. Growth has been driven by a buoyant construction
market, with the need to increase housing supply resulting in strong output
growth in the private and public housing sector. Furthermore strong levels of
business investment stimulated private non-residential construction output
while government programmes such as LIFT and BSF boosted public non-residential
activity.
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Architects’ fees in the private housing sector
are believed to have declined by 14% to £1212.6 million in 2008. This decline
is due to reduced housebuilding activity, as housebuilders significantly
scaled back new build projects in light of the worsening economic conditions
and the downturn in the housing market. The decline in 2008 is in contrast to
growth of 23% recorded between 2004 and 2007, taking architects’ fees in the
private housing sector to a peak of £1411.1 million in the latter year. An
important factor in the development of the sector during the current decade
has been the increase in demand for architectural and design specification,
thus enabling differentiation between individual properties or developments.
The Treasury’s Barker Review of Housing Supply revealed the need for an
additional 140 000 houses per year, of which between 70 000 and 120 000
should be provided by the private sector. This is believed to have increased
the buoyancy of the private housing sector in recent years. A large
proportion of the work in the private housing sector is carried out by
in-house architects working for national building groups and local practices,
rather than large city-based multi-disciplinary groups.
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The public housing sector is the focus of
increased government attention. The publication of the Treasury’s Barker
Review of Housing Supply identified the need for an additional 23 000 social
housing units per year, which is believed to have stimulated demand in the
public housing market during recent years. The Government’s Green Housing
Paper, published in July 2007 also placed an increased emphasis on social
housing supply and committed itself to increasing social housing supply to 45
000 units a year by 2010/11. However, this target is unlikely to be met, with
the number of social housing completions expected to continuing to trail
behind the Government’s target over the next five years. Architects’ fees in
the public housing sector increased by a highly significant 64% between 2004
and 2007. However this is believed to have been partially offset by a 2%
decline in 2008, taking the value of fees to £446.4 million.
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The private building sector which includes
private industrial and commercial work accounted for the largest share of
total architect fees in the UK in the five years to 2008, representing
between 45% and 49% of the total. In the latter year, fees are estimated at
£2157.6 million, equivalent to a decline of 4% in the year. However compared
with 2004, this still represents nominal growth of 33%. The commercial
construction sector was not as strongly impacted by the economic downturn and
the financial crisis as the housebuilding sector during 2008, with a moderate
increase in construction output estimated for the year. A downturn in the
sector is believed to have been avoided as many projects that were already
planned and approved prior to the downturn still went ahead, despite the
worsening economic conditions. However MBD anticipate a strong decline in
activity in the sector is anticipated for 2009, as the economic climate will
lead to reduced investment in the sector.
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In 2008, architects’ fees in the public non-residential
sector increased by an estimated 11% to £524.1 million. This represents
overall growth of 12% compared with 2004. The proportional importance of the
sector to total architects’ fees is also believed to have increased from 46%
in 2004 to an estimated 49% in 2008. Growth in the sector has largely been
driven by increased government investment in the education, health and
leisure sectors. However stronger growth in the sector is believed to have
been hindered by significant delays in some government programmes, most
notably the BSF programme.
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Architects’ fees derived from public and
private infrastructure totalled an estimated £54.7 million in 2008 compared
with £46.9 million in 2004. This represents overall growth of 17%. In 2008,
the sector accounted for a moderate 1% of total architects’ fees.
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Architects’ fees in the UK are forecast to
decline in real terms by 9% and 2009 and by 3% in 2010, as the uncertain
economic climate is expected to continue to exert a downward pressure on
construction activity over the next two years. Architects’ fees are expected
to increase between 2011 and 2013, with annual growth levels projected to
fluctuate between 2% and 5%. However, as a return to growth in the market is
linked to an economic recovery, there is a degree of uncertainty concerning
the timing and level of future growth. In 2013, architects’ fees are
anticipated to reach £4292.3 million (at 2008 prices), although this still
represents a moderate decline of 2% compared with 2008. The sectors with the
strongest growth potential for architects over the next five years are
expected to be the public housing, health and education sectors.
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Architects’ fees derived from private housing
are expected to decline by 15% and 6% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
Housebuilders are likely to continue to be negatively affected by the
uncertain economic climate and the downturn in the housing market, resulting
in a further decline in housebuilding activity. In 2011, architects’ fees are
expected to increase by 4%, which is anticipated to be followed by further
growth of 2% and 7% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A large proportion of the
work in the private housing sector is carried out by in-house architects
working for national building groups and local practices, rather than large
city-based multi-disciplinary groups.
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Unlike the private sector, architects’ fees in
the public housing sector are expected to increase in each year between 2008
and 2013, as the government remains committed to invest in social and
affordable housing. Indeed, in the latest pre-Budget Report, published in
November 2008, the Chancellor promised an extra £775 million for the public
housing construction sector over the next 16 months by bringing forward
spending on housing and infrastructure projects that were only due to get
funds from April 2010, in a bid to kickstart the economy. Overall, architects’
fees in the public housing sector are forecast to increase by 38% in real
terms between 2008 and 2013. The proportional importance of the sector to
total architects’ fees is also anticipated to increase from 10% in 2008 to
14% in 2013.
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The private building sector which includes
commercial and industrial buildings is anticipated to continue to account for
the largest share of total architects’ fees over the next five years,
although the proportional importance is expected to decline from 49% in 2008
to 45% in 2013. Architects’ fees in the private building sector are forecast
to decline in 2009 and 2010, followed by growth in the subsequent three
years. Overall, the value of fees is expected to decline by 10% between 2008
and 2013.
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Architects’ fees in the public non-residential
sector are expected to increase in each year up to 2013. In the latter year,
architects’ fees are anticipated to reach £582.2 million (at 2008 prices),
equivalent to overall growth of 11% in real terms compared with 2008. Demand
in the sector is expected to be driven by increased government investment in
the health and education sectors.
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